OSCAR: Pete Hammond Delivers The State Of The Academy Awards Marquee Races

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While Obama is actively preparing his State of the Union to be delivered Tuesday night - the same day the Oscar nominations are announced - I think it's normal to deliver State of the Oscar race in its current form. It goes without saying that Hollywood is preparing for the big reveal at 5:38 in the morning. At this point, critics were all weight groups all guild nominations, all nominations for the BAFTA and Golden Globes all results. Taken together, these pioneers have laid the groundwork for what to expect. But first, a word of warning: there are always surprises with the Oscar. But that's where I see the race for best picture position now. 

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Top 10 Best indicator is the consistency of a horse race, that the various corporations, up and down, he offered his job. Since it is heavy on top of the voting members of the Academy for the Guild of these contests are the key indicators. Or, as Harvey Weinstein told the Sunday evening when the Golden Globe for "actual voters that count." The same 5 or 6 films seem to keep coming up over and over again, making them the strongest bets. Social networks, scoring noms key everywhere except in visual effects now is the undisputed pioneer in this race, especially when its overwhelming advantage in the groups of critics, the Best Pic winners have been added, and mix together the last weekend of back-to-back wins and the same four awards (picture, director, screenplay, score), Golden Globe and Critics Choice Movie Awards. His only hiccup was a very poor result in BAFTA nominations this week, only six nods, even though all were major categories.

Yet it was overshadowed by other BAFTA for Best Film in the number of candidates: the King's Speech was 14, Black Swan 12, Inception 9, and True Grit 8, so the competition for the best Pic much more fluid than it seems the surface is. Obviousness of the Guild, the Black Swan and initiation are only two perfect record shows strong support for the linear appears every list, including the DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG, the American Cinema Editors, Art Directors Guild, the American Society of conspiracy Costume Designers Guild, Cinema Audio Society and the Visual Effects Society. Swan is also nominated for Best Film Independent Spirit Awards, making this film just completely drained and the vessel. It 'been done so well that director Darren Aronofsky told me that he was upset, the Academy is not limited to Best Make-Up contenders. "This film started a fashion trend," he said.

Well, he can not win 'em all - but Swan seems to be doing well, however, also becoming a major box office success, which could keep the race in thickness.

Together, all the films mentioned above, the other fighter seems to be a sure thing to go to the Oscars. It SAG, DGA, PGA and the inclusion of the WGA, as well as lists of Publishers, Costume and Art Direction guilds are good omens, although sticking to the BAFTA's Best Picture contenders, low blow, but not a knockout. These first six contenders are likely related to the Oscar Golden Circle is a Toy Story 3 (which is cleared in the animated category now), Kids Are All Right (strong projections PGA, WGA and SAG, and Best Film (Comedy) and Best Actress won the Globe), the city and 127 hours (which has hung there for the whole season, despite anecdotal reports that some of the Academy voters were too squeamish to watch it). Winter's Bone is the film most likely to take a top 10 spot if you stumble.

In future, I see a situation where the social network could continue to sweep to win this Saturday's Awards PGA, DGA and ceremony next Saturday, which is already a favorite David Fincher. You might get tripped SAG, however, the next night, losing both the King's speech, or more likely, a fighter cast category, SAG equivalent of Best Pic. Fighter shocked everyone in the band category CCMAs again three days later, the Museum of the Moving Image to celebrate King's speech "Ensemble Film of the Year." Both of these distributors use the reputation of this place to move its film and upset SAG, one of the important places that think they can stop the social network is dynamic avalanche.

Flashback: In 2005, then Lions Gate President Tom Ortenberg told me that the game plan was to stop the competition only Brokeback Mountain Guild. He did when Crash won the SAG honor of the tournament and got the Big Mo out of it. That moment proved to be the race cost $ 250,000 to send each of Crash DVD of the more than 100,000 SAG members, so a bold move and is now indispensable. All the best contenders voted this year or have been sent to put movies on DVD or download from iTunes or the entire SAG membership.

SAG victory is particularly important in the speech of the king as it is at ineliglible if the WGA would probably have won the Best Original Screenplay. Although it seems Hus and BAFTA winning as the hometown favorite, the losses of four major disputes Guild would bring out the best film to win all the more daunting - at least in relation to the traditional plan Oscars. No film has done, after all the four major guilds will be distributed year-end bonuses for them. In the case of Chariots of Fire-style upset Reds CEO of a surprise Best Picture win 1981 without significant precursors or critics in the United States to win.

Despite Chariots of Fire has been linked to the Reds for the National Board of Review Award for Best Picture. This year, things however, the NBR has started going well for social networking. Could a disturbing precedent by breaking the case this year? Sure. The rules are made to be broken in this game despite what some experts will tell. The big question is what is the impact of all the victories of the pioneers of the network is at the Academy. Recent history has shown voters Oscar PD in line with the critics and the unions at least in terms of three years, when No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire and The Hurt Locker all built on high season prices steam could not be overcome by Oscar days.

While Sony seems to be outspending The Weinstein Co. and others with a large margin, my conversations with Academy voters show a much closer competition than it seems at present between the two presumed front-runners. If the votes are divided in years, since I feel they may be, the scenario is ripe for a third film - a spoiler - to sneak and take it all. It has certainly arrived. In 1951, everyone thought that the best film Oscar would mean one of two major tragedies: A Place In The Sun and A Streetcar Named Desire. The winner was upset from a musical earlier this year, an American in Paris. MGM made a triumphant announcement that trading day following showed their famous logo, Leo The Lion, coyly said, "Honestly, I was just standing in the sun waiting for a tram."